What signals does the NATO response send to Russia?

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After the rocket to Poland“The incident clearly showed the weaknesses of NATO”

NATO could breathe a sigh of relief because it probably wasn’t a Russian missile that landed in Poland. But how much is NATO willing to accept to avoid escalation?

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The missile that landed in NATO member Poland led to bad days for NATO and the West. It is now believed to have been a Ukrainian defense projectile.

AFP

In the immediate aftermath of an explosion in Poland that killed two people, the media on Tuesday evening initially talked about a possible Russian missile.

In the immediate aftermath of an explosion in Poland that killed two people, the media on Tuesday evening initially talked about a possible Russian missile.

via Reuters

Regardless of whose arsenal the missile came from, many international observers agree that Russia, with its war of aggression against Ukraine, is ultimately responsible for the fallout in Poland.

Regardless of whose arsenal the missile came from, many international observers agree that Russia, with its war of aggression against Ukraine, is ultimately responsible for the fallout in Poland.

Reuters

It’s about it

  • The impact of a suspected Ukrainian defense missile in Poland kept NATO in suspense.

  • Some see the incident as a sign of how cool and deliberate NATO is in responding in a crisis situation.

  • Others see it as a boost for Putin, who can explore how far he can go without risking escalation.

The past few days have been particularly turbulent for Europe and NATO. One The rocket hit the territory of Poland and kills two people. This was particularly explosive because any attack on Poland as a NATO member state would have to be seen as an attack on NATO as a whole. Crisis meetings are called, p Procedure according to Article 4 NATO treaty.

NATO breathes a sigh of relief

Article 4 provides for consultations between NATO states if one of them sees a threat to its territorial integrity, political independence or its own security. But in the end it is not necessary, as it turns out quite quickly that missile sender in the border area it was probably not Russia – but Ukraine itself. All parties – but especially NATO – can breathe a sigh of relief.

It is true that Russia is still being singled out as the real cause of the collateral damage. “We share the opinion that Russia bears full responsibility for the missile terror and its consequences in Ukraine, Poland and Moldova,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter on Thursday. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg found very similar words after Wednesday’s extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council.

“NATO needs courage and determination”

Latvian Daily «Neatkariga Rita Avize” writes that the NATO articles that almost came into play in the precarious situation in Poland offer basically only one thing, namely “formal excuses to do nothing or postpone immediate measures”. But what NATO needs is “courage and determination to solve complex problems”. The big question that now arises with NATO is how much big money it is willing to swallow to avoid escalation.

The incident thus clearly showed the weaknesses of NATO. And there is great uncertainty about how NATO will react in the event of ambiguous threats. The relief of the West can only encourage Putin, because “it is clear that the West is willing to turn a blind eye to many things, just so that it does not have to come into direct conflict with Russia.”

“Russian ammunition is not known for its accuracy”

that “Wall Street Journal» (Paid article) describes as «understandable» that the US and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg he quickly tried to suppress his fear. But the incident is hardly reassuring, as the blame still lies with Russia.

Since February 24, the Russians have been conducting repeated attacks near the Polish border. Since Russian munitions are not known for their accuracy, each of these attacks represents a reckless act that carries with it the risk of hitting NATO territory and thus triggering a broad escalation. “A NATO response beyond a sigh of relief is implied, so Russia doesn’t think the collateral damage in Poland is a big deal.”

Good marks for leadership in Washington

Italian newspapers see it much more positively «Corriere della Sera» (Paid items) reported the incident. He showed that despite the serious situation in the Ukrainian conflict, there is an emergency brake. The assumption that it was a Russian attack on a NATO country was soon withdrawn and ultimately not used to provoke immediate retaliation.

The incident shows that NATO has always taken the risk of escalation seriously. “Corriere” gives the leadership in Washington positive marks. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and President Joe Biden are neither “hawks” looking for an excuse to go to war with Russia, nor advocates of “regime change” aimed at getting rid of Putin, perhaps wondering who will succeed . him.

Are you or someone you know worried about the war in Ukraine?

Here you can find help for yourself and others:

Questions and answers about the war in Ukraine (State Secretariat for Migration)

Ambulance for victims of SRK’s torture and war, Tel. 058 400 47 77

fear of war?tips from Pro Juventute

Counseling service (German, Ukrainian, Russian) from Pro Juventute

Free counseling for children and youth in Ukrainian

Dealing handConcerns hotline, tel. 143

For the youthcouncil for children and youth, phone number 147

Registration and information for host families:

Swiss aid to refugees, Tel. 058 105 05 55

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